By Franck Essi & Baba Dodo – Senior Consultants, STRATEGIES!
Note: Article written on January 17, 2026
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An international order fractured by the return of raw power relations
The international system is undergoing a profound restructuring, marked by intensifying geopolitical rivalries, the fragmentation of globalisation and the accelerated erosion of an already fragile multilateralism. Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency has radicalised this dynamic. In just a few days in early January 2026, the US administration withdrew from 66 international organisations and conventions, conducted a military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and openly threatened military intervention in Greenland, Panama, Colombia, Mexico and Iran.
These acts are not mere rhetoric. They signal a clear desire to return to a revisited Monroe Doctrine, a logic of exclusive American sovereignty and an unapologetic use of force to impose unilaterally defined interests. The operation in Venezuela, presented as a “surgical police operation”, was condemned by several states in the UN Security Council as a flagrant violation of international law. Threats against Greenland – an autonomous territory of Denmark, a NATO member country – sent shock waves through the Atlantic alliance, with the Danish Prime Minister warning that an American attack would spell “the end of NATO”: Several European countries are participating in sending troops to Greenland for its defence, Trump has once again imposed tariffs on European countries, and NATO is on the verge of a split that was unthinkable a few weeks ago.
This offensive against multilateral institutions reduces the system’s capacity to produce global public goods, destabilises development financing mechanisms and reinforces largely transactional, bilateral and asymmetrical international cooperation. For Africa, already facing limited budgetary margins and acute security and climate vulnerabilities, these developments constitute both an increased risk factor and a moment of strategic clarification.
The central question is therefore not whether the international order is changing, but whether Africans will continue to suffer these changes or choose to work them to their advantage by building their own strategic trajectories.
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Africa’s assets and challenges in this context
Africa is entering this period of turbulence with major assets: a growing young population, strategic reserves of minerals critical to the energy and digital transitions, considerable agricultural and energy potential, and a continental agenda (Agenda 2063, AfCFTA) which, if implemented, could become a lever of power. Africa’s repositioning in global rivalries over critical minerals, rare earths, logistics corridors and military bases illustrates how central the continent has once again become in the calculations of the major powers.
But these assets are hampered by structural challenges: weak states, institutional vulnerabilities, political and economic fragmentation, low capacity to mobilise own resources and persistent dependence on external financing, fragile health, education and social protection systems, and high exposure to climate and security shocks. There remains a wide gap between Africa’s potential strategic weight in the world and its actual ability to influence international agendas. It is precisely this gap that the following strategic imperatives seek to reduce.
The six imperatives presented below are neither exhaustive nor definitive. They constitute a core set of priority areas that will enable Africa to transform a hostile international environment into a lever of power, in a world where international law is openly flouted and where power relations are once again becoming the dominant grammar of international relations.
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Imperative 1: Adopt strategic, not emotional, non-alignment
The rise of rival blocs – the United States, China, Russia, regional powers – as well as the current US strategy of selective withdrawal from multilateralism and open use of force require a radical clarification of African positions. Trump’s threats against Venezuela, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, Greenland, Panama and Iran demonstrate that no region of the world is safe from interventions based on a unilateral interpretation of US interests.
For Africa, the risk is twofold. On the one hand, military interventions similar to that carried out in Venezuela could be repeated on the continent, under the pretext of fighting terrorism, securing resources or protecting American citizens. The unprecedented and as yet unexplained bombing in northern Nigeria is a clear example of this. On the other hand, competition between rival powers could transform certain African states into arenas for the projection of external rivalries, replicating the logic of the Cold War in an even more dangerous context.
Historical non-alignment has shown that a “third way” is possible, but also how the absence of strong state capacities and prioritisation of interests can transform this non-alignment into a fragile position. In the sequence opened by Trump’s return, Africa can no longer be content with emotional alignments, incantatory neutrality or symbolic votes in international forums. It must:
- Define vital, stable and prioritised interests (food security, energy sovereignty, territorial security, targeted industrialisation, regional integration);
- Translate these interests into guidelines for its diplomatic positions, security partnerships, trade commitments and alliance choices;
- Refuse to be a mere playing field for rivalry between the United States, China, Russia and other actors, by demanding clear quid pro quos for any form of military, economic or political presence.
- Take an open and strong stance in favour of international law based on shared principles and values, in partnership with Latin American and Asian countries that already do so. International law protects countries without real military strength to fight against nuclear powers. South Africa has understood this and has already positioned itself as a leader in this area.
Strategic non-alignment is not about abstaining, but about negotiating on the basis of clear priorities and positions. In a world where even the United States’ historic allies – such as Denmark – find themselves under threat, Africa must abandon once and for all the illusion of automatic protection and build its own capacity to defend its interests.
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Imperative 2: Building functional states in an increasingly transactional world
The Trump administration’s offensive against international organisations – particularly those related to climate, health and human rights – is accelerating the shift from an imperfect multilateral order to a landscape dominated by bilateral arrangements, power relations and unilateral military interventions. The operation in Venezuela, conducted without an international mandate and in violation of international law, illustrates how far the logic of power can go when it is no longer constrained by collective norms.
In such a context, the belief that well-written policies, ambitious declarations or visible partnerships can compensate for weak institutions becomes even more dangerous. For several years, STRATEGIES! has defended this central thesis: the determining variable for Africa is neither ideology, nor the form of government, nor diplomatic alignment, but the State functionality.
A functional state is one that is capable of transforming clear priorities into policies that are implemented, measurable and adjusted over time. In concrete terms, this involves:
- Defining clear and prioritised objectives that effectively guide budgets and reforms;
- Effectively coordinating public, private and social actors as well as development partners around these priorities;
- Mobilising internal resources and remittances for collective development;
- Enforcing predictable, stable and credible rules;
- Strategically allocating scarce resources;
- Produce verifiable results and be willing to correct course when necessary.
Without functional states, Africa remains confined to a performative presence in international arenas: summits, communiqués, commitments, without any real ability to influence decisions or protect its interests in the face of powers that no longer hesitate to resort to force. The American threats against several countries simultaneously demonstrate that only states with institutional capacity, strategic coherence and economic leeway can hope to resist external pressures of this magnitude.
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Imperative 3: Protect and redefine climate transition as a lever of power
Recent American withdrawals from climate and multilateral organisations increase the risk of a world where climate governance is fragmented, underfunded and dominated by ad hoc coalitions. For Africa, a continent that is both the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and central to certain key resources for energy transitions, this context is paradoxical: exposure to risks is increasing, while collective mechanisms for addressing them are becoming weaker.
Trump’s threats against Greenland, justified in particular by the control of rare mineral resources and the surveillance of Russia and China in the Arctic, show that energy and mining issues are once again becoming areas of direct geopolitical confrontation. Africa, which has considerable reserves of minerals critical for batteries, solar panels and digital technologies, must anticipate that these resources will attract similar covetousness.
Africa cannot be content with moral discourse on climate injustice, nor can it passively accept transitions dictated solely by markets or by the priorities of major powers that are disengaging from multilateral frameworks. It must:
- Treat the climate transition as a project linking energy, industrialisation, agriculture, food security and land use planning;
- Demand that all climate cooperation be aligned with the construction of productive economies and functional states, rather than short-term compensation mechanisms;
- Use its weight in terms of biodiversity, forests, carbon sequestration capacities and critical minerals to negotiate partnerships that combine financing, technology transfer and co-governance of projects.
Without this approach, the climate transition risks adding yet another layer of dependency to an already unfavourable international system and, in the worst case, justifying external interventions under the pretext of “securing” strategic resources.
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Imperative 4: Move from fragmentation to coordinated action and defence of the African agenda
The current global realignment – including the US strategy of selecting “useful” multilateral frameworks and marginalising others – reinforces the need for Africa to actively defend its own architectures: the African Union, Regional Economic Communities, AfCFTA, Agenda 2063 and continental sectoral strategies. Recent decisions by Washington illustrate a tendency to bypass or weaken African institutions in favour of bilateral relations or limited coalitions, particularly in the areas of security and natural resources.
The intervention in Venezuela and threats against Colombia, Cuba and Mexico reveal an aggressive regional logic that could spread elsewhere, particularly in Africa, if states are unable to collectively defend their sovereignty. Several Latin American countries have denounced US unilateralism in the UN Security Council, but without strong regional coordination, their protests have remained largely symbolic.
In light of this, it is imperative to:
- Strengthen national government centres (presidencies, prime ministries, ministries of planning and finance) to coordinate internal priorities and external commitments;
- Use regional economic communities and the African Union as platforms for collective negotiation in order to reduce asymmetries with the major powers;
- Align donor and partner interventions with clearly defined African frameworks, rather than the other way around;
- Develop mechanisms for inter-African solidarity in the face of external pressures, whether economic, security-related or diplomatic.
Africa does not lack initiatives. It lacks coordination mechanisms capable of transforming these initiatives into cumulative power and collective resilience in the face of powers that no longer hesitate to resort to force.
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Imperative 5: Master cycles rather than suffer crises
The sequence that began in 2025 – rising geopolitical tensions, the US withdrawal from multilateralism, the reshaping of security alliances, market volatility, accelerating climate shocks, threats of military intervention against several countries simultaneously – reminds us that the international system operates in cycles of opening and closing, expansion and contraction, cooperation and confrontation. Too often, African actors approach these cycles from the perspective of the immediate crisis, reacting rather than preparing.
In a world where the major powers, starting with the United States, are increasingly openly pursuing short-term policies based solely on their national interests and resorting to force to impose them, Africa must develop a culture of reading and anticipating cycles. This implies:
- Embedding strategic monitoring, analysis and scenario planning mechanisms capable of anticipating upheavals and disruptions in public institutions;
- Developing a culture of anticipation and proactivity, rather than just emergency management, among political, administrative, economic and social elites;
- Considering each period of constraint as a period of selection of actors: those who have prepared their room for manoeuvre emerge stronger, while others are permanently weakened;
- Build up strategic reserves – budgetary, food, energy, health – to weather shocks without being entirely dependent on external aid.
Mastering cycles does not mean controlling them, but reducing the element of surprise and increasing the capacity to respond. The intervention in Venezuela took the international community by surprise; the next American – or Chinese, or Russian – intervention on the African continent should not have the same effect. It’s a way to build resilience.
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Imperative 6: Establish a long-term African strategic culture
Current dynamics – US withdrawal from multilateralism, unilateral military interventions, threats to the sovereignty of several states, Sino-Russian-American competition, the reshaping of alliances in the Sahel, pressure on African institutions – underscore the urgency of developing a genuine, autonomous, long-term African strategic culture. Without this culture, Africa will remain trapped in a succession of reactions to agendas set elsewhere.
The experience of Venezuela, where the Trump administration organised a military operation, captured a sitting head of state and threatened to extend the intervention to other countries in the region, serves as a warning to all states in the Global South: in a world where international law is openly violated by the major powers, only an autonomous strategic capacity can protect sovereignty.
Establishing a strategic culture requires:
- Recognising that the continent already has assets and conceptual resources (pan-Africanist thinking, African political economies, experiences of integration) that need to be updated rather than ignored;
- Articulating academic knowledge, technical expertise, citizen experiences and field practices into a coherent long-term vision;
- Creating permanent spaces for strategic reflection within states, institutions, citizen movements and the private sector that are capable of influencing public action;
- Train African elites to understand international power relations, analyse geopolitical cycles and actively defend the continent’s interests.
- Significantly strengthen alliances, strategy development and collective action with countries in the global South. In a world where the most powerful act solely in their own interests, numbers are a strategic tool for countries without nuclear weapons. Africa must be among the leading regions developing and using this strategic lever.
The six imperatives proposed here do not claim to cover all the necessary areas of work. They form a foundation: without functional states, without a clear strategic non-alignment policy, without climate transition as a lever of power, without enhanced African coordination, without control over cycles or a long-term strategic culture, the continent will remain vulnerable in a tougher, less predictable world where force is once again becoming the arbiter of international relations.
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A decisive moment for Africa
Africa is not lagging behind history, but it is facing a serious test. The frontal challenge to international law, the weakening of multilateralism, unilateral military interventions and the deliberate return to brute force leave no room for illusions. The American intervention in Venezuela and the threats against Greenland, Panama, Colombia, Mexico and Iran are all signs that the world has entered a phase where power is expressed without filter and where collective regulatory mechanisms are weakened.
The actors who are today building discreetly, methodically and strategically – by strengthening their states, coordinating their actions, clarifying their interests and developing a long-term culture – will shape the balances of tomorrow. The world will not slow down for Africa. But it will have to deal with Africa as it becomes strategically readable, institutionally reliable and operationally effective.
At STRATEGIES!, we remain firmly convinced that Africa’s future will not be negotiated in the heat of crisis, but will be built through functional states, coordinated action, and a clear strategic vision. The time is not only ripe. The time is decisive.
