Context: Maputo, Malabo… and now Kampala
Since the Maputo Declaration in 2003, followed by the Malabo Declaration in 2014, African heads of state have repeatedly reaffirmed their commitment to making agriculture a strategic priority, pledging to allocate at least 10% of their national budgets to this sector. However, twenty years on, the reality remains far below the stated ambitions.
This observation should not be seen as a simple admission of failure, but rather as a call for collective action. A new window of opportunity is opening: in 2026, the continent will begin implementing the Kampala Strategy (2026–2035), an ambitious roadmap designed to breathe new life into agricultural development. With this in mind, effective compliance with the 10% commitment is now more than ever a test of political and budgetary consistency.
1. The importance of the 10% threshold: a structuring objective
Why aim for 10%? This threshold is not arbitrary. It is based on solid technical and economic grounds: according to the FAO and the African Development Bank, significant budget allocation to agriculture is essential to stimulate inclusive growth, reduce rural poverty and strengthen food security across the continent.
In many African countries, the agricultural sector accounts for between 20% and 40% of GDP and employs more than 60% of the working population. Without consistent public investment, agriculture remains dominated by the informal sector, vulnerable to climate hazards and increasingly dependent on imports. Reversing this trend requires transforming the 10% threshold into an essential budgetary standard.
2. A minority of model pupils, many absentees
Recent trends:
- Between 2021 and 2023, only three countries — Ethiopia, Burundi and Mauritania — will exceed the 10% mark. Ethiopia is the exception, with a budgetary effort reaching 23%, a level unmatched on the continent.
- Countries such as Mali and Niger are hovering around 9%, but are struggling to stabilise their efforts over time.
- The majority of countries are capped at between 4% and 7%, while some agricultural powerhouses, such as Nigeria and South Africa, are struggling to reach 5%.
This contrast highlights the persistent gap between political commitments and actual trade-offs. And yet, the evidence is mounting: according to FAO data, every additional budget point invested in agriculture leads to productivity gains, higher rural incomes and greater resilience to food shocks.
How can this paradox be explained?
3. Persistent obstacles: four barriers to be removed
The 10% target remains out of reach, not because of a lack of intention, but because of a tangle of structural constraints. These obstacles must now be tackled head-on if Africa is to deliver on its promises as it enters the Kampala Strategy.
a) Low mobilisation of fiscal resources: the lifeblood of development
A state’s ability to invest depends on its capacity to mobilise resources. However, in many African countries, the tax burden remains below 15% of GDP, which limits budgetary margins.
Between 2014 and 2018, tax revenues grew by 16%, but agricultural spending by only 13%. As a result, trade-offs are often made that favour security, administration or debt servicing at the expense of a sector that is vital to the national economy.
b) The burden of public debt: a vicious budgetary circle
Debt is absorbing an increasing share of African budgets. In some countries, up to 60% of revenue is devoted to debt repayment. The debt service ratio rose from 4.4% in 2010 to 9.2% in 2023.
This dynamic is exhausting the capacity to invest in key sectors such as agriculture. Less investment today means more imports tomorrow — and therefore ever more fragile food sovereignty.
c) Prolonged dependence on external aid: when urgency replaces strategy
On average, 40% of agricultural budgets are still provided by donors or NGOs. While this aid addresses certain emergencies, it undermines long-term planning, makes countries vulnerable to changes in their partners’ agendas and limits their strategic autonomy.
External financing must no longer be the backbone of the agricultural budget: it must become a complementary lever to sustained national efforts.
d) Budget execution problems: agriculture falls victim to delays
Even when funds are approved, they are not always executed. Complex procedures, administrative delays and poor inter-sectoral coordination are all factors that hinder the effective use of allocated resources.
The result: blocked projects, unused funds and eroded confidence. The effectiveness of public spending is a project in itself.
→ In summary, the problem with agriculture is not just how much to budget, but how to mobilise, manage, secure and execute resources. This is where the credibility of public action is at stake.
4. Levers for crossing the 10% threshold
It is possible to break out of the rut. This requires activating a series of proven levers, backed by clear political will and solid institutional engineering. The Kampala Strategy provides a framework for implementing these levers starting in 2026.
• Develop blended finance: combine public ambition and private resources
Combining public budgets, private capital and risk guarantees can multiply the impact of investments. Tools such as leasing, guarantee funds and co-investment platforms are already proving their effectiveness.
The SFI-OCP platform, which aims to mobilise $800 million by 2030, is a prime example.
• Integrating agriculture into inclusive finance: banking to transform
Millions of producers remain excluded from the formal financial system. To include them, we need to adapt financial products, strengthen banking services, encourage rural fintechs and develop targeted incentives.
Inclusive agriculture starts with finance that understands rural realities.
• Strengthen governance and transparency: lead to perform
Creating multisectoral steering committees, strengthening the capacities of agriculture ministries and establishing accountability mechanisms are essential for ensuring effective and visible budget execution.
• Rethink debt: turn a constraint into an opportunity
Exploring mechanisms for converting debt into agricultural investment can free up new room for manoeuvre. This requires active financial diplomacy and a clear strategy for allocating the resources freed up.
• Create regional momentum: learn, harmonise, pool
The Kampala Declaration provides a space to strengthen regional synergies: sharing experiences, harmonising budgetary tools, pooling resources.
Collective momentum is essential to move from isolated actions to continental impacts.
→ These levers are not theoretical. They are available, applicable and adaptable. The challenge is now political.
5. Recommendations for credible implementation
Moving to action requires clear choices and concrete commitments. Five priority recommendations are needed:
- Appoint a high-level political champion capable of driving and coordinating agricultural budget reforms;
- Anchor agricultural spending in a vision of structural transformation, rather than in a logic of survival subsidies;
- Strengthen local and sectoral taxation to finance the needs of agricultural areas;
- Establish credit guarantee mechanisms to secure private investment;
- Equip local authorities to plan, execute and monitor high-impact agricultural projects.
Conclusion: a decisive decade ahead
Africa is entering the period 2026–2035 with a clear strategy, objectives and direction. The 10% target is no longer an abstract promise. It has become a condition for survival, sovereignty and shared prosperity.
But meeting this commitment cannot be achieved by decree. It must be built. It requires political courage, committed budgetary discipline and modernised governance. If Africa succeeds, agriculture – long marginalised – could finally become the engine of economic transformation on the continent.
It is time to make 10% a reality. No longer an exception, but the norm.
Franck Essi
Senior Consultant, STRATEGIES!
